30.05.2014 - ​U.S. GDP fell by 1% in the 1st quarter of the year

The price of euro continues to consolidate near the strong level of 1.36 despite a number of contradictory statistics from the United States. Thus, the number of unemployment claims dropped to 300 thousand, which is 21 thousand better than the forecast. Pending sales on the secondary real estate market grew by only 0.4% in April, compared with an expected growth of 0.1%. Investors were disappointed with the GDP data, which in the 1 quarter of the year fell by 1.0% that is 0.4% worse than expected. Economic recession results from a bad weather conditions this winter. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on retail sales in Germany (06:00 GMT), personal spending and income of U.S. consumers (12:30 GMT), and the index of consumer confidence in the U.S. in May (13:55 GMT ). Traders are waiting for the ECB statement on measures to fight the low inflation, which can be announced on June 5. On this background, we remain medium-and long-term negative outlook for the euro.

On Monday on the markets is scheduled the release of a large number of data on manufacturing PMI in Australia, China, Eurozone, UK and USA. We should also pay

The British pound continues to consolidate above the level of 1.67 due to lack of important macro. Today, the focus of traders will be on data from the United States. At the moment, the UK economy shows steady growth and reduction of unemployment and the trade surplus, which till spring 2015 will lead to a tightening of monetary policy of the Bank of England. On this background we maintain a long-term and medium-term positive outlook for the pound.

The price volatility of the yen has increased significantly after the publication of contradictory data in Japan. Thus, the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, household spending fell in April by 4.6% against the forecast of 3.4% fall, industrial production fell by 2.5%, which is 0.6% worse than expectations of analysts. Core CPI rose to 3.2%, against the target level 2.0%, which can be explained by increased purchases before April 1, when have been raised the sales tax by 3% to 8%. Strong rise in inflation may lead to a revision of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. This fact constrains the growth of USD/JPY. We maintain our medium and long-term positive outlook for the pair.

The price of the Australian dollar has continued to grow despite the drop in iron ore prices on the world markets (the minimum level in 20 months). Positive mood on the market is explained by positive data on the housing market in the country, where we see the growth. On Monday, investors are waiting for the release of data on the manufacturing PMI in Australia and China. We expect a decline in prices in the near future and maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The price of the New Zealand dollar rose following the Australian currency and on improved mood of investors in China. Limited growth of quotations is due to the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on its readiness fight a strong currency against falling prices for major export commodities, including food. We expect the resumption of the downward movement in the coming days and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

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