30.05.2014 - Volatility on stock markets declined
Major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly, despite the mixed macro statistics. Thus, the number initial unemployment claims dropped to 300 thousand, against the forecast of 321 thousand. It is worth noting that the level of claims less than 400 thousand, indicates improvement on the labor market. Unexpected for the market was drop of U.S. GDP by 1.0% vs. expected 0.6% decline in the first quarter. Today, the course of trading may be affected by the data on personal income and consumer spending (12:30 GMT), and the index of consumer confidence in the U.S. (13:55 GMT). The potential for further growth of the market is very weak and we expect the correction and save the medium and long negative outlook on the U.S. indexes.
Major European stock indexes have not changed much over yesterday's trading session. Slight optimism on the British stock market explained by the improved consumer confidence index in May to 0 compared with a forecast -2. German retail sales in May fell by 0.9% vs. expected 0.4% growth. Today, European investors will be watching the statistics from the United States. Before the weekend, we can see a decrease in indexes on the background of fixation of positions. Markets are still under the pressure of the tense situation in Ukraine. We expect the beginning of correction on the European stock markets in the coming days and keep medium and long term negative outlook.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region have not changed much for the trading session, despite the release of a large block of statistics in Japan. Investors were disappointed by the data on reduction of household spending by 4.6%, which is 1.2% worse than expected and the fall in industrial production in April by 2.5% compared with an expected decline by 1.9%. The Australian stock market declines following the prices for iron ore, while the market of China was supported by growth in shares of high-tech corporations. We maintain our negative outlook on the stock indexes in Japan, China and Australia.