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30.07.2014 - News from the U.S. today will lead to a strong increase in volatility

The price of euro yesterday continued to decline due to positive data on consumer confidence in the U.S., which rose to its highest level since October 2007 - 90.9, versus the expected 85.5. At the same time, the EU declared tightening sanctions against the financial, energy and military-industrial sectors of Russia. Today, we expect increased volatility in the euro due to the release of data on changes in the number of jobs in the U.S. (12:15 GMT), U.S. GDP growth for the second quarter (12:30 GMT), and the statement the Fed's monetary policy. We expect that the statistics published in the U.S., will lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar and reserve midterm negative outlook with the objectives of 1.32 and 1.28.

The British pound continued to decline, despite the positive statistics on the housing market of the country, where the number of new permits for mortgage loans increased to 67 thousand, against the forecast of 63 thousand. At the same time, the volume of consumer credits in June fell to 2.5 billion, 0.5 billion worse than the previous figure. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data from the U.S. labor market, GDP growth, and the statement of the Fed on monetary policy. Current negative dynamics of the pound may continue in the near future, but we maintain midterm positive outlook for the pound with the objectives of 1.72 and 1.73.

The Japanese yen continued to decline against the U.S. dollar amid expectations of statistics on U.S. GDP and the Fed’s statement on monetary policy. In addition, industrial production in Japan fell in June by 3.3%, which is much worse than expected decline of 1.0%. Today, we expect increased volatility on the afternoon, and on Friday we should pay particular attention to Japan's manufacturing PMI in July and statement of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. We look forward to continuing devaluation of the yen in the near future and maintain midterm negative outlook.

The price of the Australian dollar is continuing to decline, despite the improvement on the iron ore market in the world, as well as statements of the agency Moody's, about the likely improvement in the housing market in China during the second half of the year. Further price movement will depend on the news from the U.S., and tomorrow traders should pay attention to the number of permits issued for construction of new homes in Australia. We maintain our negative outlook for midterm with the objectives of 0.92 and 0.89.

The New Zealand dollar continues to decline following the Australian currency. The negative dynamics of the national currency of New Zealand was caused by a statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand a significant potential for price drop amid falling prices for exports and reduction of the trade surplus in the country. The course of trading in the near future will be affected by the news from the U.S. and China, which is the main trade partner of the country. We expect continuation of the current price dynamics in the coming days, but in the medium term, is probable the change of trend.

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