31.03.2015 - A stronger dollar puts pressure on the major currencies of the world
The price of euro gradually decreases due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the program of quantitative easing in the euro area, as well as uncertainty about the debt restructuring of Greece. Support for the dollar yesterday was the news on the growth of consumer income by 0.4%, which is 0.1% better than expected. Today, volatility is increased in connection with the release of statistics on retail sales in Germany (06:00 GMT), changes in the number of unemployed in Germany (6:45 GMT), the consumer price index and the unemployment rate in the euro area (09:00 GMT). In the US, will be released the data on Chicago PMI (13:45 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
The price of the British pound continued gradual downward movement against the strengthening of the US dollar. Support for the British currency was positive data on the number of approved applications for mortgage loans in the country, which grew to 62 million in February, compared to 61 in January. Today is forecasted a strong price movement after the publication of statistics on GDP, business investment and the UK balance of payments (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the downside potential is limited.
The price of the Japanese yen continues to decline against the US dollar amid the strengthening of the US currency, as well as due to the high demand for dollar from importers. It should be recalled that earlier Janet Yellen has announced intention to raise interest rates of the Fed this year, that against the background of a soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan leads to a further drop in prices of the Japanese yen. Tomorrow on the dynamics of trading will affect data on the manufacturing PMI in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a further decline of the yen in the near future.
The price of the Australian dollar shows a steady drop amid falling prices on iron ore, as well as in connection with the strengthening of the US dollar. It is worth mentioning that China's economic slowdown leads to a drop in imports of Australian products and lower prices for them. Today was published statistics on new home sales in Australia, which rose 1.1% in February that is less than 1.8% in January. We forecast a fall in price in the near future to 0.76 and save a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to decline steadily and is under the pressure from two main factors - the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of the Australian currency. Falling commodity prices also has a negative impact on the course of trading. Publication of data on the growth of the index of confidence in the business community in New Zealand in January to 35.8, which is 1.4 better than the previous figure, did not affect the course of trading. We expect a further decline in quotations of the New Zealand currency.