31.03.2015 - Strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the price of commodities
The price of gold continued to fall against the strengthening of the US dollar, which was caused by the statement of the head relative to the Fed raising interest rates the Fed this year. At the same time, the demand for defensive assets fell after a sharp increase caused by airstrikes in Yemen. Further movement of the price of gold will depend on the important statistics on the US labor market, which will be published on Friday. Improvement in the labor market will be the basis for the earlier increase in interest rates of the Fed and therefore will lead to a drop in the price of gold with the potential of reaching the levels 1100-1150 dollars per troy ounce. Despite this, the growth of interest in gold is possible in case of a fall on the US stock market. We maintain our positive outlook for the medium-term, but in the near future may see a price drop.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil has stabilized near the level of 49.00 after a sharp decline due to lower fears of oil supply disruptions that may be caused by the conflict in Yemen. On the other hand negative for the market was the news on forecasts to reduce US GDP growth in Q1 to less than 2.0%. Oversupply of oil, growth of inventories and storage capacities of oil continue to put pressure on oil prices. Tomorrow will be published statistics on oil reserves in the United States. Despite the forecast of decline in production in the second half of the year, we keep a medium-term negative view on oil and recommend holding short positions with the target at $ 40 per barrel.