31.03.2016 - The dollar resumed its growth
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro resumed its fall after the strong growth caused by dovish rhetoric of the Fed with respect to raising interest rates. The reason for the strengthening of the dollar yesterday has become the positive data on the number of jobs in the US private sector, which grew by 200 thousand that is 5 thousand better than the forecast. Today's trading session will be filled with important data on retail sales in Germany (06:00 GMT), the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT), the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT) and Chicago’s manufacturing PMI (13:45 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we expect the price decline in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound today resumed the negative dynamics on the background of the recent correction after the strong growth, caused by the weakening of the US dollar. Today, the dynamics of the British currency will affect the speech of head of the Bank of England (07:00 GMT) and statistics on mortgage lending, business investment, balance of payments and a final report on the growth of UK GDP for the 4th quarter (8:30 GMT). Given the pressure from the future referendum on the country's membership in the European Union, we keep a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen resumed its decline against the background of recovery of positions of the US currency. It is worth noting that investors expect tomorrow's publication of important statistics on the Tankan business activity index of the largest manufacturers in Japan, as well as a monthly report on the US labor market in March. The demand for defensive assets will decline, which, together with the strengthening of the US dollar and the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan are the reasons for the strong reduction in the price of the Japanese yen in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar after reaching the highest level this year, stabilized in anticipation of new incentives. Publication of data on sales of new homes, which fell by 5.3% in February against the forecast of growth by 0.6%, disappointing investors. We recall that the construction sector is one of the drivers of the Australian economy considering lower investments in the mining complex. At the same time, it is worth noting that the decline of oil quotes will put pressure on the Australian currency. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on the manufacturing PMI in Australia and China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar is corrected after rapid growth in the previous days. Today, investors were disappointed by the data on the index of confidence in the business community of New Zealand, which in January fell to 3.2 against 7.1 in December. It is worth noting that the US dollar is rising again, and considering the possibility of reducing interest rates to stimulate the RBNZ inflation and economic growth, we expect the fall in prices in the medium term and in the near future.