31.03.2016 - The market is waiting for tomorrow's statistics on the labor market in the US
US stocks yesterday showed moderate growth on the background of improved investor sentiment after a speech by Fed chief at the Economic Club of New York, in which she noted the intention to gradually and cautiously increase interest rates against the background of instability in the global economy. In addition, support for the market was the news on the increase in the number of new jobs in the US private sector by 200 in March, which is 5 thousand more than the forecast. Today activity on the market will be restrained amid waiting for the publication of data on the labor market in the US in March, which will be held tomorrow. Despite this, the dynamics of trading can affect the news on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT) and the Chicago manufacturing PMI. Current growth may continue in the short term, but we expect a significant correction, which may begin in the near future.
Major stock indexes in Europe today are reduced to the backdrop of renewed negative dynamics of oil prices and the general deterioration in investor sentiment in the world. It is worth noting that retail sales in Germany fell by 0.4% in February against expected growth by 0.3%, core consumer price index in the euro area in March showed an increase to 1.0%, against 0.8% in February. Controversial statistics was published in the UK, according to which GDP growth in Q4 was 0.6%, which is 0.1% more than expected, but the balance of payments deficit for the same period rose unexpectedly to 32.7 billion against predicted 21.1 billion. Tomorrow we should pay attention to data on production and service activities, as well as the unemployment rate in the euro area. Our medium-term outlook for markets in the region remains positive, despite a possible correction in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today completed trades near previous closing levels. The reason for such dynamics was the expectation of important events tomorrow, among which are the manufacturing PMI in China, Japan and Australia, as well as on the Tankan index data in Japan, which reflect the situation in the largest enterprises in Japan. It is worth noting that today was published weak data on new home sales in Australia, which fell by 5.3%, but this fact was not able to change the positive sentiment on the market. We maintain our medium-term positive outlook on the Japanese market.