31.07.2015 - US GDP grew by 2.3% in the second quarter
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to decline against the publication of statistics on the growth of US GDP in the second quarter by 2.3%. It is worth noting that, in connection with the change of method for calculating GDP the economy drop by 0.2% in the first quarter was revised to an increase of 0.6%. It is worth noting the growth in consumer spending and a rise in price of consumer goods that pushes the Fed to raise interest rates in September. It is worth noting that Spain's GDP in the second quarter rose by 1.0%, which is 0.1% better than the previous period. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on retail sales in Germany (06:00 GMT), the unemployment rate and the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT). In the United States was released the important statistics on consumer confidence in the country (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to gradually decline against the strengthening of the US dollar and the lack of important news out of the UK. Today was published statistics on consumer confidence in the UK, which in July fell to 4 vs. expected 5. We forecast decline of the British pound in the medium term against the background of the expected increase in interest rates of the Fed and the weakening euro.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened today after yesterday's decline caused by the positive statistics on the growth of US GDP. Today was published statistics according to which household spending fell to -2.0%, against expected growth to 2.0%, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 3.3% and the core CPI in Japan rose to 0 1% in June, which is 0.1% better than expected. On Monday, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is corrected after weakening yesterday, which was caused by the positive statistics on the growth of US GDP. Today in Australia, was published statistics on producer price index, which in the second quarter grew by 0.3% against the expected 0.2%. The price movement of the Australian dollar next week will depend on the data on manufacturing activity in China, which traditionally have a strong influence on the dynamics of the Australian currency. At the moment, we see no reason to change the current downward trend and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to decline after strong growth earlier in the week. The reason for the drop is the strengthening of the US dollar, weak statistics on the trade balance, lower export prices and the expectation of easing the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect continued downward momentum in the near future.