31.08.2016 - The dollar continues to strengthen

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to decline against the dollar amid the closing of long positions after the Fed’s chief statement in Jackson Hole that has led to increased confidence in the monetary tightening in the US this year. It is also worth mentioning the publication of the index of consumer confidence in the US from the Conference Board, which rose to its highest level in 11 months of 101,1. Today, the course of trading will affect the data on the index of consumer prices and unemployment in the euro area (09:00 GMT) and the labor market in the US (12:15 GMT), but the main event of this week will be the publication of the US labor market report in August, which will greatly affect the decision on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to decline after the publication of weak statistics on lending in the country, indicating that the increase of negative trends, which in turn are due to the expectation of the UK’s exit from the EU. Today a slight impact will have the news on the index of the house prices in the UK (06:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative with the objectives at 1.2600 and 1.2200, and we expect a decrease in the near future.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese Yen continues to decline against the strengthening of the US dollar and the closure of long positions, the volume of which has increased significantly in recent months. According to our estimates, this trend will likely continue in the near future. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on the manufacturing PMI in Japan, and on Friday the main event will be the release of US employment report. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian currency declines against the US dollar, after recently changed the local positive trend to the negative. On the one hand the negative is the strengthening of the US dollar, but on the other hand investors fear further decline of RBA’s rates and fall on commodity markets. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the manufacturing PMI in Australia and China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rebounded upwards today after was published the data on the index of confidence in the country's business community, which was 15.5 in June against 16.0 in the previous month. Investors continue to monitor the dynamics of prices for commodities and dairy products, as well as statistics in Australia and China. We expect the renewal of negative dynamics and decline in the near future, which will confirm the signal for trend reversal. Our medium-term view remains negative.

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