31.12.2014 - The price of the US dollar corrected before the holiday
The price of euro yesterday rose on fixing positions after a strong dollar growth and before days off due to the celebration of the New Year. It is worth noting that the money supply in November showed an increase by 3.1%, which is 0.5% higher than analysts' expectations. On the other hand, the euro was supported by data on the index of consumer confidence in the United States, which totaled 92.6, which is 2.0 worse than the forecast. Today, it is worth paying attention to statistics from the US labor market (13:30 GMT) and the Chicago PMI (14:45 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the British pound regained previously lost ground against correction of the US dollar and the statistics on the housing market in the UK. Thus, the house price index showed an increase by 0.2%, resulting in lower annual growth rate to 7.2% in December. Earlier, the Bank of England tightened mortgage lending rules to reduce the risk of the mortgage crisis in the country. In general, in a report on the housing market was noted expectation of revitalization in the housing market of the country. Increase in volatility is expected on Friday. Markets will be closed tomorrow. We recommend to wait for a signal to open new positions.
The Japanese yen rose substantially on profit taking after the reduction, as well as due to increased demand for defensive assets against the background of the political crisis in Greece and the expectation of further expansion of the asset purchase program to support the growth of the economy, which showed a reduction in the last quarter. Trading week in Japan is over and we expect increased activity next week. Despite the strengthening of the Japanese currency prices, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
The Australian dollar has shown growth on improving manufacturing data in China, which is the main trading partner of the country and the state of which influence the volume of Australian exports and export prices including iron ore and other commodities. We expect low volatility this week and recommend holding short positions. Our medium-term outlook is negative.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to rise against the background of better statistics on production in China and the increase in quotations of the Australian dollar. Today in New Zealand is a holiday and we expect stabilization of quotations near current levels. Given the expectation of new stimulus measures in China and technical factors, we expect continued growth in the near future, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.