31.07.2014 - The US GDP increased by 4.0%
The price of euro has accelerated the decline due to the strengthening of the dollar after released data on GDP growth in the world's largest economy by 4.0% in the second quarter, which is 0.9% better than expected. At the same time, the number of new jobs in the United States increased by 218 thousand in July against 281 thousand, in June. The Fed statement included theses regarding reduction another of quantitative easing program by 10 billion dollars, to 25 billion dollars per month, improvement in the labor market, reducing the likelihood that inflation will remain below 2.0%, as well as slow recovery the housing market. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data on the consumer price index and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), as well as data on the labor market in the United States (12:30 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro, but do not exclude that after a large block of macro data on the Eurozone and the United States we will see profit taking and an upward correction.
The British pound fell yesterday against the US Dollar following the other major currencies due to strong data on GDP growth in the United States, which in the second quarter made 4.0%, compared with an expected growth of 3.1%. As a result, the price of the pound has reached another important mark of 1.69, and in the near future we may see an upward correction on profit taking. Today the course of trading may be affected by publication of a report on the house price index in the UK (06:00 GMT), and tomorrow the main event of the day will be the release of data on unemployment in the United States. We expect growth of volatility in the coming days, and despite the current negative dynamics of the pound, maintain a medium-term positive outlook.
The price of the yen fell sharply after the release of data on GDP growth in the United States which also contributed to the triggering of stop orders. Next reduction of quantitative easing program and improving the labor market in the United States, which may lead to higher interest rates and on the other side waiting to strengthen incentives and monetary easing in Japan give us reason to expect continuation of the devaluation the yen in the medium term. In the coming days, the weakening of the yen is also likely to continue.
The Australian dollar under sharp decline reached the target level of 0.9330 and now is consolidating below this mark. An additional factor for the price drop of the Australian currency other than yesterday's news from the United States, was the drop in the number of permits issued for new construction in Australia by 5.0% in June against the growth of 10.3% in May. Tomorrow the course of trading will be influenced by statistics on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Australia and its major trading partner - China, as well as data on unemployment in the United States. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
Volatility of the New Zealand dollar rose slightly yesterday, despite the strong movement of other world currencies. The price has continued a gradual decline and reached an important level of 0.8480. After a decline in recent years, we can see the slowdown of decline and an upward correction. Further price movement will depend on export goods prices, the main of which is the food and the data on the trade balance of the country. We forecast the beginning of the rising price correction in the near future, but to assess the further movement, we need new signals.